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Region: South East Change

Ando Pasture Forecast

Last update: 3 days ago
Region: South East Change
Provided by CSIRO

GrassGro Farm System Model

Livestock

Enterprise

Self replacing Merino flock (55kg mature ewe weight)

Lambing/Weaning

16 Sept / 15 Dec

Ewe Replacements & Wethers

Ewe replacements enter main flock on 2 Jan at 16 months of age. Surplus young ewes are sold at 16 months of age (Jan). Wethers are retained for another year and sold between June and Oct as 3 year olds.

Annual DSE Rating

5.8 dse/ha
Environment

Pasture

Phalaris, speargrass, poa tussock and sub clover

Soil type

Basalt

Soil Fertility

Good

Elevation

850m

Climate

Based on SILO Gridded data (last 30 years).

Projected green herbage available relative to historic variation

KEY
HISTORIC
Current Growth
(modelled)
18kg/ha/day
Summary
  • Currently tracking in top 50% of years on record
  • Poor conditions until April 17 will result in pasture availability in the bottom 25% of years on record
  • Average conditions will see pasture availability in the bottom 50% of years on record
  • Really good conditions will see pasture availability in the top 10% of years on record

Plant available soil water (modelled)

Current PAW
(3 day average)
15mm
Summary
  • Plant available water (calculated as an average over the last 3 days) represents water held across the entire pasture root zone
  • At this time of year, for the wettest 10% of cases the soil has held 27mm or more and is currently holding 15mm
  • Currently the PAW is wet relative to historic variation

Ground Cover

KEY
Current Ground Cover
100%
Chance of falling below the minimum ground cover target
(if no changes are made)
0%
Summary
  • Ground cover should be managed carefully and maintained at over critical level of 70% to prevent erosion
  • Current ground cover of 100% is greater than the minimum ground cover target
  • There is a low risk (0% chance) of dropping below this level

Female Condition Score

KEY
Current condition score
3.5
Summary
  • Condition scores are currently below average for this time of year
  • Poor conditions until April 17 will result in a below average condition score, supplementary feeding may be required
  • Average conditions will see a below average condition score, supplementary feeding may be required
  • Really good conditions will see an above average condition score

Stock Weight

KEY
Summary
  • Potential liveweight of weaned male progeny from the forecast pasture levels
  • There is a 50% chance of animals reaching 42.7kg at the end of the Forecast Period
KEY
Male weaners average weight
42.9kg
Female weaners average weight
37.8kg

Feeding Projections for Weaners

KEY
Summary
  • The amount of supplementary feed per head per day and the time when feeding will start at 3 percentile levels

Total Supplement Fed

KEY
Summary
  • The probability of the total supplement fed in the three month forecast period exceeding the value shown on the horizontal axis (kg/head) for the 3 age groups of females
  • There is a 3% chance of needing to supply feed to maidens, a 3% chance for mature females and a 10% chance for weaner females
  • There is a 50% chance of needing to feed 0kg/hd to maidens, mature females and weaner females