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Region: South East Change

Ando Pasture Forecast

Last update: 2 days ago
Region: South East Change
Provided by CSIRO

GrassGro Farm System Model

Livestock

Enterprise

Self replacing Merino flock (55kg mature ewe weight)

Lambing/Weaning

16 Sept / 15 Dec

Ewe Replacements & Wethers

Ewe replacements enter main flock on 2 Jan at 16 months of age. Surplus young ewes are sold at 16 months of age (Jan). Wethers are retained for another year and sold between June and Oct as 3 year olds.

Annual DSE Rating

5.8 dse/ha
Environment

Pasture

Phalaris, speargrass, poa tussock and sub clover

Soil type

Basalt

Soil Fertility

Good

Elevation

850m

Climate

Based on SILO Gridded data (last 30 years).

Projected green herbage available relative to historic variation

KEY
HISTORIC
Current Growth
(modelled)
12kg/ha/day
Summary
  • Currently tracking in top 50% of years on record
  • Poor conditions until August 15 will result in pasture availability in the bottom 50% of years on record
  • Average conditions will see pasture availability in the top 50% of years on record
  • Really good conditions will see pasture availability in the top 25% of years on record

Plant available soil water (modelled)

Current PAW
(3 day average)
70mm
Summary
  • Plant available water (calculated as an average over the last 3 days) represents water held across the entire pasture root zone
  • At this time of year, for the wettest 10% of cases the soil has held 34mm or more and is currently holding 70mm
  • Currently the PAW is wet relative to historic variation

Ground Cover

KEY
Current Ground Cover
99%
Chance of falling below the minimum ground cover target
(if no changes are made)
0%
Summary
  • Ground cover should be managed carefully and maintained at over critical level of 70% to prevent erosion
  • Current ground cover of 99% is greater than the minimum ground cover target
  • There is a low risk (0% chance) of dropping below this level

Female Condition Score

KEY
HISTORIC
Current condition score
4.7
Summary
  • Condition scores are currently above average for this time of year
  • Poor conditions until August 15 will result in a below average condition score, supplementary feeding may be required
  • Average conditions will see an above average condition score
  • Really good conditions will see an above average condition score

Stock Weight

KEY
Summary
  • Potential liveweight of weaned male progeny from the forecast pasture levels
  • There is a 50% chance of animals reaching 53.4kg at the end of the Forecast Period
KEY
Male weaners average weight
53.4kg
Female weaners average weight
58kg

Feeding Projections for Weaners

KEY
HISTORIC
Summary
  • The amount of supplementary feed per head per day and the time when feeding will start at 3 percentile levels

Total Supplement Fed

KEY
Summary
  • The probability of the total supplement fed in the three month forecast period exceeding the value shown on the horizontal axis (kg/head) for the 3 age groups of females
  • There is a 100% chance of needing to supply feed to maidens, a 3% chance for mature females and a 3% chance for weaner females
  • There is a 50% chance of needing to feed 0kg/hd to mature femaless and weaners, but this level is not reached for maidens